How do I know? Because the 34-year-old Derek Jeter, as smart and as focused as any player I can recall, simply lacks the range of an average major-league shortstop, and with the Bronx Bombers playing in a wind tunnel of historic proportions, they can't afford to allow more baserunners than the league average. They need to be one of the league's better defenses, and having Jeter's above-average bat in the lineup at short is not going to make up enough runs lost on his defense..
Oddly enough, I pick on Jeter because I watched him start a double play on a ball hit by David Wright. What's wrong with that, you might ask? Well, Wright's grounder was hit just two steps to Jeter's left on three hops. This is not a smoking one-hopper through the infield. This is a ball that virtually every major league shortstop squares up to before the second hop and catches, standing up, with two hands. Not Jeter. He had to dive for the ball right before the third hop, pull it behind his body then shovel it to Cano from his knees to start the DP. In the slo-mo replay, you can see Jeter's exceptional body control at work, in that he is able to keep his balance during the dive, but you can also see him exhale in relief when he is able to get the feed to Cano. This was not, by any means, a routine play or a momentary lack of concentration on Jeter's part. He was only able to make the play by dint of great concentration and experience, and it was definitely not a routine play for him anymore.
But the Yankees are unlikely to tell their captain to take his glove to the outfield in mid-season. They are going to keep Jeter at short for at least one more year for the same reason Posada (who turns 38 this season) is still catching and Rivera (40 in November) is still closing: because they are truly Yankee legends who are pulling down eight-figure salaries. But, as ESPN analyst Steve Philips said during the same broadcast I was watching, in the near future Jeter will move to the outfield because he will recognize it's the best thing for his team.
But maybe you're not convinced by my anecdotal account. Maybe you think a little more skepticism is in order. After all, the Yankees won some world titles with this guy. Well, read this if you want to see a detailed, open-minded statistical analysis on the subject of Jeter's defensive prowess. It's by the incomparable Bill James, one of the few people who makes almost as ballplayers do simply by analyzing their performance. And it's pretty devastating: by multiple independent methods, Jeter has been below-average at his position for years and it's getting worse. If you don't want to read all that math stuff, well, here's a sampling of opinion on defensive prowess from last season from a 10-man panel of experts including James:
Of 22 regulars receiving votes, Jeter finished dead last. Owch.
So, the decision of Worcester GM Matt Caskey to keep Jeter and his $20,000,000 salary on his roster may be the act of a Yankee fan, but the decision to play Jeter at second, rather than at short (Hanley Ramirez's position) is eminently sensible.
4 comments:
everyone loves to hate the best. spoken purely like a sad padres fan.
My question is why send this out?????????????? the time it took you to write this could have been more wisely spent typing up a game update which we need. I believe the goal for the blog is to see consistent game updates not random posts. Bullard ALTERNATIVE... is what this league is about. So to start a post with "this is purely reality" makes absolutely zero sense.
To answer my reasons for keeping him;
he floated through the draft and therefore only costs 10 mil.
why would i cut him? i have the salary. And I can do far worse than Jeter as a backup.
and why play him at second?
BECAUSE you refuse to level the playing field with the rest of the league and tell us what statistics the simultaion uses.(Maybe thats why darwin seems to always win) Im going by the previous half seasons stats. Am i wrong? Jeter hit better than Cano last half season. My lineup after all-star break will have Cano starting over Jeter i assure you.
OH and Yankees defense, didnt they set a major league record with like 18 connsecutive games without and error? Am i wrong?
BTW Steve Phillips endorsed the Red Sox constantly. Him and Joe Morgan are yankee haters.
june 25th. last game update. just saying were falling behind again. sigh
people get old. it happens. losing range happens. if you move Jeter, who replaces him? Arod? Doubt it too many roids to move (proven). But if the Yanks go out and get a proven SS and pay another 7 or 8 figures for him, then the complaint is that the Yanks are buying a championship. So, keep Jeter at short and keep winning because leadership isn't how many balls you get to but how well you perform in key situations that each game presents.
Overly critical I must add.
I hate writing self-justifying statements, but...(sigh)
Actually, there's a practical reason why I will often have an off-topic comment on a Saturday or a Sunday: the league's software environment is on a computer on the Bullard campus (I'm typing this now at 6:03 Monday evening after entering game descriptions). I just don't have regular access to the site right now on the weekend, and so I pretty much have to run games on weekday afternoons, etc. But I hate to go several days in a row with nothing, and when I saw Jeter's strained play I just had to comment.
Jeter was a winning player at short 4-5 years ago, because he contributed enough in other ways offensively and with his brains (he's very smart) to offset the differential in balls he gets to.
But Jeter is not a winning player at short now. He doesn't hit enough to overcome the 20-30 extra baserunners he is going to allow. Wang and every other pitcher on the Yankees staff who relies on getting ground balls are looking over their shoulder. Don't be deceived by all the home runs that are going out in the wind tunnel. I wouldn't be surprised if Jeter hits 20 again, frankly. I'd love to have him on my BARB team, he'd be a real upgrade for me. But you put Jimmy Rollins in pinstripes, you're going to trim 0.3-0.4 off your staff ERA just like that. At least, that's my opinion. I'll be shocked if the Yankees even make the playoffs.
Oh, and Matt: your claim that I don't provide stats, and that I decline to do so to keep my edge, is just conspiracy theory crap.
I've providd it in the past. Diamond Mind makes articles available on their web site that describe their simulation. There's even a forum for DMB users (who tend to be fanatical) that could probably answer any question you have about the simulation better than I can. Instead of complaining about my alleged shortcomings, why don't you take the time to peruse the software's web site, here:
http://www.diamond-mind.com/
And, by the way, the Knights Templar entered into an agreement with the Illuminati to suppress the rightful claim to St. Peter's throne by members of the Rosicrucians. Ask Dan Brown, he'll tell ya.
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