Well, for one thing, that given the results in the league, they say that some teams have been lucky and others not so much. You can assess luck by comparing the ratio of runs scored to runs allowed, the so-called sabermetric Pythagorean Theorem.
Consider, for example, the Worcester Eliminators. They have a BARB-leading won-loss record, and there are good reasons for that. Their offense, led by the surprisingly-resurgent Adrian Beltre, leads the league in HR and runs scored. Brandon Morrow was sensational in the season's first months in the closing role, leading to a BARB-leading 18 saves, and their staff ERA of 3.67 is second in the league.
But, notice that they also lead the league in unearned runs scored (43), just ahead of Las Vegas (40), and well ahead of the league average of 0.68 per games played. Unlike the Luchadores, who are clearly playing several bats out of position, the Eliminators have some pretty good leather. So why all the unearned runs? Answer: some of their pitchers have been lucky not to have some runs charged to them due to their own problems on the field (throwing errors, wild pitches, balks, passed balls). Expect their runs allowed to climb, accordingly. . . though as long as they are scoring 5.8 runs per game, their record shouldn't dip too much. The Pythagorean predicts that Worcester should have a .605 winning percentage, not a .682, by the way.
Similarly, an expansion team with a so-so record (18-21) is really outperforming as well. The internal numbers for the St. Francis Friars, who are 3rd in the loop in HR surrendered, 9th in ERA and 11th in scoring, says they should have a winning percentage just under .400, which would be 14 wins. Expect their numbers to decline, especially as they lose some of their thin pitching staff (Frank Francisco, Yusmeiro Petit) to injuries.
What about a team that's performing as expected? Look no further than Pottsylvania, which has gotten off to a slow start in several categories, including runs scored (9th in the loop) and saves (next-to-last). And yet, the Creepers are outhomering their opponents 43-26 and are dead last in free passes. The combination of strengths and weaknesses lead to an expected won-loss record of 19-17. . . which is their won-loss record as we went to press.
Who's not reaching their potential? There are two playoff perennials currently in the middle of their division races, Frostbite Falls and Yuma. The Pythagorean predicts that the Squirrels (23-21) should be only three games back of Worcester with 27 wins, and that Yuma (22-19) should actually be one game ahead of Darwin. Instead, both are just a game or two above .500. Expect their records to improve, especially when they are playing foes outside their division.
OTHER TIDBITS: Black Mesa's starting pitching is dreadful (over six runs per game, and a BARB-leading 58 dongs surrendered by the staff), but their bullpen has 13 saves, second only to the Eliminators. Takashi Saito and Jonathan Papelbon are not the problem, it seems. Casselton's pitching is really taking off. They have a margin of K:BB that is greater than 2 to 1, and the only club close to them in that respect is the (underachieving) Yuma Firebirds. Brooklyn is 11th in average, but compensates somewhat with 57 HR. They missed Brian McCann's ability to hit for average in much of May, and they will probably rebound with him back in the regular lineups. Texas's overall numbers (12th in runs scored, 12th in ERA, last in saves and home runs) really are awful. They were definitely not unlucky based on their internal numbers. But they have made some deals for farm system depth and they are getting a great source of power back in their lineup (Alex Rodriguez) this month. They can't possibly finish the season with a winning percentage below .300....can they? Fresno's pitching staff has probably underachieved. How can the same nucleus that was playoff club last year lead the loop with 441 hits allowed, at the same time that they are second in staff strikeouts? There's no way to prove it, but it seems likely that their opponents have a much higher than expected mark on balls put in play than you would predict. Expect their staff ERA to fall quite a bit, no matter how many games they play against the ultra-competitive Eastern clubs.
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