'REALITY' SUGGESTS PATIENCE IS WARRANTED

I will try to post some stats stuff from the league before I leave for the Galapagos on Tuesday.

In the meantime, I'd like to preach patience. We've only played about 40 games in our league vs. nearly 80 in 'reality'. Don't be in too much of a hurry to cast off veterans, it's still EARLY for us. Let me give you an example of how players tend to hit their 'seeds' given time . . .

Consider what Josh Hamilton is doing now. Is it really way better than 2009, when he missed a lot of time with injury? Sure. Is it way off his career norms? Not really. Consider . . .

In 624 AB in the year 2008, Josh established his All-Star credentials, hitting .304 with 32 HR and a .530 slugging percentage. But the luster went off him in the final month, as he ran out of gas and despite having 130 RBI, he only finished 7th in the MVP voting.

In 614 AB since then (2009 and 2010 combined), Josh has hit .303 with 27 HR and a .477 slugging percentage. That's not 2008 good, but it's hardly chump change and his recent surge (8 HR and 26 RBI in June) has him deservedly back in the discussion for a starting berth in the All Star Game.

Yet, neither his picks or his valleys are that far from his career norms. In 1,536 AB in the major leagues through today, Josh has hit .301 with 1 HR every 19.7 AB, or about 31 for every 620 AB and a .529 slugging percentage.

To summarize:

2008 .304, 32 HR, .530 slg
09-10 .303, 27 HR, .477 slg
Career .301, 31 HR per 620 AB, .529 slg

In other words, barring injuries, a lot of players (including Josh) are actually surprisingly consistent year-to-year once you have a big enough sample size. And, if the Finches can avoid injuries in the second half, they can expect to experience an offensive resurgence based on Hamilton, David Ortiz and Milton Bradley finding their center, statistically-speaking.

So, sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don't make.