8.25.2010

AN UNSOLICITED OPINION

I can't stand it any more. I have to say something.

For months now, the Giants fan base has been slavering for more offense. It is certainly true that their run production was down in 2009: out of 16 NL teams, they were 13th on offense at 4.08 R/G, which means they were still better than the Astros, Padres and Pirates. Perhaps most glaringly, the franchise recently defined by the ML single-season and career HR leader was next-to-last, 15th, in HR with 122 round-trippers (Just to establish context, the ever-futile Mets were dead last at 95, while the Phillies lead the senior circuit in mashes with 224 boundary belts).

So...yeah....last year, they didn't score enough to support their solid starting pitching. So they reupped a utility IF, Juan Uribe (a good move) and signed versatile Aubrey Huff off the dumpster (a great move), and they bided their time on the hot, youthful lumber of rookie C Buster Posey (an essential move).

How's that worked for them? Well, you would never know from listening to most of the fans on KNBR, but it's worked great as far as scoring runs goes. Huff leads an offense that had over 120 bombs before this week's slugging series with the visiting Reds, and the club has already hit more HR through August 23 than they hit all of last year. Their on-base plus slugging (OPS) as a team is .737, 6th of 16 teams in a league where the average is .726. A tremendous improvement.

Meanwhile, their pitching staff has been good, if not great, and that is mostly due to injuries or falloffs by last year's relief corps. Again, here Sabean has done a good job, getting good work out of Javy Lopez, Chris Ray, Santiago Casilla and Brian Wilson. The overall staff ERA is 5th-best in the majors, and 4th out of 16 teams in the NL. So it's certainly capable.

So who are the callers blaming for their inability to catch the Pads in the NL West? Why, it's the lack of offense, don'tcha know, and also every starting pitcher who has recently made a bad start, including (of course) a disappointing Tim Lincecum.

This drives me crazy. The Giants pitching staff is not the reason they are struggling to stay in contention. The Giants offense is not the culprit, either. Hmmmmm.....what could the problem be?

Here's the simple truth that Giants fans and KNBR broadcasters just can't seem to face: the Padres are winning with defense, and the Giants are giving it away with sub-part defense, particularly on the left side of the diamond. Let me count the ways....

1) Pablo Sandoval is a tease, and the decision to make him a key part of their marketing campaign has made it impossible for most Giants fans to evaluate him objectively. Put simply, he is not a terribly-inspiring figure at third. The effort and attitude have been good almost all of the time, but he just doesn't have much range at all. His defense is sub-par, and it's leading to the pitching staff give up a couple of extra hits a week.

Sure, every now and then Sandoval will blast a ball that more pedestrian hitters have no business doing anything other than fouling off. Every now and then. And fans will get very excited, and murmur about his unusual talent. But it's a mirage, because his free-swinging ways mean that he will never be a consistent run producer, and his girth means he will never be suitable at the top of a lineup. If he wasn't their glitziest hitter last season, he would've been sent to the minors during his mid-season struggles, just like any slumping soph. Instead, they stuck with him, no doubt fearful of the backlash of sending them down. The result is a guy who hits around .300 with occasional pop, but no consistency, and lot of balls called 'hits' by the official scorer that, realistically, would've been turned into outs by an average defender.

2) Meanwhile, over at short, there's a guy who should be the regular third baseman, who has some tools with the leather and who is a legitimate run producer: Juan Uribe. Only one problem: Edgar Renteria's legs are past their sell-by date, and so he has been on the DL for long stretches. Uribe is forced to play short, where his lack of range is exposed. In the game where the Padres beat Lincecum, none of the balls were scorched, but four of them went just under the outstretched gloves of Uribe and Sandoval. Their best dives aren't on the field, but at the buffet table.

3) In a burst of enthusiasm, Sabean made a good pickup with Pat 'The Bat' Burrell. He's a local boy, has great power and fits in the Giants clubhouse like a 'T'. But have you seen his routes? This guy was below-average in LF before signing to DH with Tampa two years ago. He, umm, hasn't improved despite slimming down this off-season. At least he's caught the cans of corn when they are in his neighbourhood and gives a decent effort. Nevertheless, you can't expect him to cover that much ground and that means that any tweener between the infield and Burrell on the left side is unlikely to be caught.

Bottom line: I could've improved the Giants staff by, I'm guessing, about half a run per game in August by just moving Uribe to 3B, platooning Sandoval at 1B with Huff (who would start in RF against righties) and installing a veteran who could cover some ground at SS. But, noooooo. Here is where the fan base and the marketing, I think, created a monster. Sandoval was too much of a media figure to see his playing time reduced and too much money had been invested in Renteria to admit the truth, which is that he is no a big-league regular.

So, instead of going after Cristian Guzman, Ryan Theriot, Adam Everett or some other, less-heralded individual who could actually catch the ball, the Giants continued to pursue MORE offense....which they didn't, realistically, need? What, they think that Jose Guillen, who clearly has bad wheels at this point, is going to make a huge difference offensively? Enough to make up for the balls in the gap he's going to limp after? Do they think that Cody Ross, a nice enough player, is going to get that many at-bats? Come on, Giants....you didn't need another pair of rent-an-outfielders. The basic alignment was working fine. Get a lead, move Huff from RF to 1B, Torres to RF, Rowand back to CF, that's the winning formula. All you need to make this work is move Sandoval off the hot corner for good and play a winning glove at short.

Seriously, Tyler Greene would've done the trick. Did I miss something?

Anyway, for the rest of the year, Lincecum will search his mechanics to get his fastball up to the mid-90's, because (realistically) he knows at this point, he can't count on his infield to bail him out and he needs to strike people out to win. It's a vicious cycle. He's still deceptive as all get out, even in the low 90's, but trust me on this: Lincecum will find his stuff again, and he will win some games in September, whether he pumps the fastball 98 or 89. But he and the rest of the Giants starters won't get any breaks on balls hit to the left side for the rest of the year.

Meanwhile, in San Diego, players without gaudy offensive stats who happen to have exceptional defensive tools (Everth Cabrera, Wil Venable, Yorvit Torrealba, Chris Denorfia) are having the time of their lives. Go figure.

2 comments:

Landon Bolt said...

The Giants are dead last in the ML in BA w/ RISP. Thats why the offense is lacking. The Giants score run when there is no pressure, aka with a lead or a blowout situation.

Scott Hatfield . . . . said...

Landon...that's an interesting stat. It suggests that the Giants, despite being in the middle of the pack offensively in the NL this year, are actually underachieving.

I suppose that could be true, but again if you look just at runs scored and earned runs, then the Giants are actually above-average in both categories.

Consider this, the average NL range factor at positions on the left side of the diamond...

3B....2.70
SS ...4.50
LF ...1.95

How are the Giants doing here?

Sandoval at 3B: 2.20
Uribe at 3B: 3.05
Renteria at SS: 3.72
Uribe at SS: 3.89
Burrell: 1.90

See the problem? The Giants are below average at SS no matter who they play, but they are absolutely killing themselves with Sandoval in there. If you had a better defensive SS you might be able to live with the Panda's limitations:

Everth Cabrera: 4.10
Jerry Hairston Jr.: 4.69

This is not rocket science.